For the last three or four days, I have been asked a question nearly a hundred times: ‘what are the election results?’ From my neighbors next door to the taxi drivers, colleagues and local and foreign journalists, everyone is impatient to know the outcome of the much-discussed, controversial Afghan elections that were held on August 20, but two months passed and no one has a clue about the real situation. One day it seems that a runoff will be the result but the next day there is a strong possibility that President Hamid Karzai is going to be declared as the winner. On the third day it appears there is a possibility for ‘negotiations’ and a ‘coalition government.’

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The U.N. and the U.S. wasted no time in declaring the election a success. True that the violence during the election process was not of much significance, in terms of its inability to hinder the process completely, but the fear that the Taliban were able to instill into the hearts of the voters before election day resulted in a low turnout across the country; even lower than expected in southern and southeastern provinces where the insurgents have control over several districts. They had threatened to cut off fingers found with the voting ink on.

According to latest reports, the vote count has been completed, the official results are yet not out, but both President Hamid Karzai and his rival Dr. Abdullah Abdullah claimed victory over one another last night. Other candidates blamed officials for rigging on a massive scale. Of course, irregularities, flaws in the process and other problems were reported from all over the country.

The country as well as the world is now impatiently waiting for the results to know who the winner was. Unofficial results and surveys show Mr. Karzai and Abdullah neck-and-neck in some provinces and Mr. Karzai much ahead in others. Two strong possibilities emerge as a result: a runoff if none of the candidates had the required votes; and a tension if one candidate got the majority votes and the other refused to accept his victory; this is the case most likely if President Karzai was declared a winner.

This is a very complicated situation now. By now it is clear that the winner is either Karzai or Abdullah. If the official announcement of the results provokes the failed one of them and it incites violence or stirs up tension which will eventually end up as a conflict between the Pashtoons and the Tajiks, or between the South and the North, it will divide the country and will harm the efforts against terrorism immensely, not only in Afghanistan, but in the whole region.

In the north, the notorious warlord, Gen. Abdul Rashid Dostum, has backed President Karzai in the election, while a powerful Governor of the Balkh province, Ustad Atta Mohammad Noor, campaigned for Dr. Abdullah. A tension on the election results may provoke Gen. Dostum and his Uzbek militia to act violently. He is already unhappy with the U.S. embassy statements about his return from Turkey. But in general view, his return contributed to the perception that the election was contested on the ground of warlordism, not democratic manners. This increased some people’s contempt towards the election process in Afghanistan.

With these uncertainties prevailing in the election aftermath, the international community, particularly the U.N. and the U.S., need to recognize the need of a broad based strategy that is acceptable to both sides and, more importantly, workable and effective in situations of this nature. This step is particularly important because if a conflict arises from this tension, it will have very unsuccessful and disastrous results for a ‘successful’ election.

 Described by the UN special envoy to Afghanistan, Kai Eide, as the ‘most complicated,’ the 2009 Afghan presidential and provincial elections, set for August 20, are going to make history in many ways.

 During the first presidential election, held in September 2004, the people had commonly developed a hope that the coming four years will have a huge contribution to their country and the next time they will cast their votes in peace and prosperity. But they are now seeing the opposite, unfortunately.

 Besides a surge in attacks countrywide, the Taliban militants vowed on July 30th that they will try their best to prevent voters from going to polling stations to cast their votes. They have already killed many campaigners and have attacked many campaign offices in different provinces.

 On the other hand, among 41 in total, there are only two female presidential candidates this time (In the 2004 presidential election, there was 1 female among 18 total candidates). They are even not able to put their campaign posters freely on public places let alone asking people for votes. The female candidates for provincial seats have been campaigning in burqas, not because they are so fond of wearing the garment, but they have been facing opposition and are under constant threats from people around them. Some times their families also get targeted by the anti-election and anti-women elements so they use every means to hide their identity and go to the campaign meetings where only women are present. And that too after getting permission from their male relatives.

 The UN special envoy also said that around 3000 donkeys were deployed to carry the ballots to the remote areas in the provinces. This means that the areas where the donkeys have to carry the ballots do not have any roads (‘road’ here does not necessarily mean an asphalted and properly constructed road, but can be a pathway on which a vehicle just can draw itself. We have hundreds of this kind of pathways, in Afghanistan, even in the capital, Kabul, which are generally called ‘roads.’ But the areas mentioned do not have even these roads why the UN had to hire 3000 donkeys).

 Question: would the people to whom the donkeys are carrying the ballots have any idea what to do with them? Would they be aware of the election campaign, the candidates, the issues and challenges that the country has been facing and the candidates’ policies on them? Let’s hope the donkeys do not return from the villages and write down this interesting history.

 Fresh news: another rival candidate, Baz Mohammad Kofi, announced his withdrawal from the race in favor of the incumbent Hamid Karzai. What does this mean? He is the winner again!