The Jan. 18 brazen attacks that challenged a huge international and Afghan military presence in a heavily fortified Kabul and turned the whole city into chaos left many question marks behind: How did the well-armed insurgent group enter a city protected by so many checkpoints? The Taliban said there were 20 attackers and confirmed that 7 of them detonated themselves or killed by the security forces which means the remaining 13 were able to get back to where they had come from, without being challenged by the security forces. According to an account (in Pashto) by the coordinator of the attacks, Khalid Mujahid (?), who claims to be present in Pashtunistan Watt from where he directed the entire episode, ‘for some time the enemies had been propagating that by building a security belt around Kabul city they had completely blocked Mujahedeen’s way but the brave Mujahedeen of the Islamic Emirate proved this as a baseless claim.’

This person claims that on the morning of the attacks he dispatched all the attackers and deployed them on many locations as preplanned, and directed the first suicide bomber to attack the palace which he did on 09:47 AM. New York Times, quoting numerous accounts from shopkeepers in front of Paroshgah building, which was burned down during the attacks, reported that ‘two men wearing the large blanket-like shawls favored by Afghan men to keep out the winter chill entered the building and went up to the fourth or fifth floor. There, they threw off their cloaks, revealing heavy weapons, and told people to get out.’

This was not Kabul’s first experience of such attacks. A similar well-coordinated attack in early February last year, in which the militants had entered the Ministry of Justice and the Ministry of Interior, created panic and badly affected the daily routines. Exactly one year later, this attack, much more sophisticated than the last one, demonstrates how the government and its intelligence apparatus and security forces are vulnerable. After this, the corruption-hit, already frustrated citizens will never feel safe and secure. And corruption seems the source which the militants used to enter the city so easily. According to a fresh U.N. report, Afghans have paid 2.5 billion US dollars in bribes over the past 12 months.

Though the casualties were low, the attacks remained effective as they came on a very important time. Earlier this month, a BBC/ABC/ARD poll said Afghans were increasingly optimistic for the future. According to the poll, 70% of the respondents said the country was heading in the right direction. The Taliban wanted to show them that the government can’t protect them, thus it will result in changing of the perceptions for future. On the other hand, just one day before the frightening attacks, Waheed Omar, spokesman to the re-elected President Karzai, announced the government was making a new reconciliation plan in which it will offer jobs, security and other financial incentives to the Taliban followers who defect. The attacks will inevitably affect this plan. Also, the government and the international community is preparing for the London conference on Afghanistan which will mainly focus on security and development and governance. The brutal attacks had a clear message to this important international conference: the sooner and the stronger you act, the better!

 The horrendous increase of insurgent attacks across Afghanistan ahead of the upcoming presidential election says what it has behind it: the security situation will deteriorate further which means that the polling will be completed without the international observers watching. This makes it clear that if there is no security, the voting process will not be free and transparent.

 Understandably we can hope that everything will be fine. But concerns have been widely expressed about some government officials’ illegal involvement in campaign activities for certain candidates which will lead the polling to be massively rigged and results manipulated.

 It is sure that neither the international community nor the Afghan people can afford such a situation because, if there was rigging on a massive scale or the results were manipulated, a reaction similar to the aftermath of the Iranian election will come up. Thus, uprisings and countrywide protests will add up to the prevailing tension and this is very likely to paralyze the whole system.

 The idea of deploying more international and Afghan troops on the Election Day is very important in this context because insecurity will result in rigging and rigging will lead the country into chaos. Consequently, the failure and chaos will gravely undermine all the efforts the international community has so far done to stabilize the country and its government.

 So it is very necessary that the international community, particularly the United Nations, take immediate steps and make sound decisions before things reach the irreversible level.

By Abdulhadi Hairan

 The race for the second-ever presidential election in Afghanistan has reached the highest point as the Election Day, August 20 (29 Asad 1388), approaches closer, with candidates trying to use every possible means to muster voters to their camps by promising many improvements, including a change in the current policies.

 Having realized the importance of using the internet technology and online resources in the campaign process, and impressed by its considerable effectiveness in the last American election, leading Afghan candidates, such as Dr. Abdullah, Dr. Ashraf Ghani, and Mirwais Yasini have, for the first time, launched websites for their election campaigns and their campaigners have been using social networks, such as facebook, youtube, twitter, and different blogs providing services, to regularly provide updated information and stay connected with the voters in and out of the country. These online resources have proved to be helpful to raise donations too. According to a post on techpresident.com,

 So [Ashraf] Ghani has spotted an opportunity to use the web in two ways: utilize word-of-mouth and encourage local influencers to spread the word in their communities; and to target the large Afghan ex-pat population in the West for political donations and to amplify their views back into their homeland.

 A total of 41 candidates, among whom two are female, are in the field for the race while more than 15 million voters have been registered in all 34 provinces to choose a new leader for the country which is facing an appallingly growing insurgency, the big obstacle in the successful election process as well as the country’s development and reconstruction efforts.

 Hopefully, despite the deteriorating security situation in southern and southeastern provinces and recent attacks on election campaigners (On July 15, unknown gunmen killed Haji Abdul Sattar, the campaigner for Dr. Abdullah, in Kapisa’s Nijrab district and a grenade attack took place on Hamid Karzai’s election campaign center for women in the southern Zabul province), rallies and gatherings are being held in provinces in which large numbers of supporters voice support for the contenders of their choice and convey to their countrymen a message of their concern for their country’s future.

 Unlike the 2004 presidential campaign, in which President Hamid Karzai was much ahead from his rivals (he won with over 55 percent votes, three times more than any other candidate), this election seems to be a tough and tense competition because none of the candidates is so far able to show too much support from people to help him\her to be perceived as a clear winner. In addition, by announcing a joint strategy, opponents of President Hamid Karzai have vowed that they will not let him to win easily.

 “We have one competitor, and we are focused on the one competitor,’ Ashraf Ghani, the hopeful candidate and former finance minister, told Nancy A. Youssef of mcclatchydc.com on July 14, 2009.

 Similar views were expressed by some other candidates rival to President Karzai, and though he may have reserved a good amount of electoral votes by mustering support of a few powerful and influential commanders and tribal leaders, it is sure that he faces a hard battle for winning.

 On the other end, for security purposes on the poll day, additional foreign troops may be deployed to alleviate voters’ fear about going to polling stations and protect and enable foreign observers and media correspondents to oversee the process.

 As election is the most important event and basic requirement for a democratic system and vital for improvements in people’s lives, the active participation of Afghan youth groups, media organizations, tribal elders, students and common people is a good omen for the building up of democracy and democratic values in Afghanistan.

 No doubt that the country’s worsening security situation does not allow candidates, their supporters and common voters to get together, and visit and listen to each other freely, but the local TV channels, FM radios, Pashto and Dari websites and social networks, and mobile messaging services provide them this opportunity through live debates, political discussions, news updates, opinion pieces, campaign announcements, and sending short messages on mobile phones.

 Keeping all these paradox factors in mind, one cannot predict exactly which path the situation will go in near future, yet one can hope that if there are no major flaws and unexpected delays in the process, the interest of voters will increase and the polling will be completed successfully.