For a long time, the Afghans have been the victims of policies, ideologies and strategies imported and enforced from outside the country. An internal Afghan solution has never been a priority for the international players of the Afghan conflict. The new Obama strategy, which has two main parts: sending more 30,000 troops to gain the momentum against the terrorists, and invest huge amounts to lure the Taliban fighters to switch sides, is another part of this series.

This strategy is for the next 18 months. The key question is: what will happen after that? The Taliban is not a pure Afghan dilemma. It has local and international powers behind it as supporters. If these supporters continue to support and pay for fighting, the insurgency will never see an end. They will pay to make them fighters and you will pay to switch sides. At the end of the day, Obama, or the next US President, will have to draw another new strategy. Thus, the conflict will continue until the time the basic regional problems and issues are understood and resolved, not through foreign strategies but through local mechanisms.

As an effort to provide a further explanation of the basic problem, for example, we can discuss the role Pakistan does play in the regional conflicts and politics. This nuclear-armed country is seen as the major contributor to the international terrorism and extremism and at the same time a major front to fight against the global threat of terrorism. From the events that have been taking place within this country, we can tell that Pakistan is extremely confused over the issue of fighting against terrorism. Two days back (on Dec. 12, 2009), Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani told reporters in Lahore that the anti-terror operation in South Waziristan was over. This he said after having claimed that the military had cleared the area of local and foreign terrorists and was now in its control. But the next day, while speaking to a different audience in Karachi, he changed his statement and said that the operation was not over but will continue to an indefinite time. This created confusion and suspicion about the coordination between the political officials and the military commanders.

Similarly, there are reports that the country is widely divided on the issue of anti-terror operations. According to these reports, the powerful military, the intelligence agencies, the political-religious parties that were originally created and later supported by the establishment, are against the operations and support the extremist groups for their local as well as international agendas, while the weak political government and the liberal circles want an all-out campaign to be launched against the terror groups that are hiding and operating in the tribal areas as well as the settled and urban areas.

The reasons behind the fact that a majority of Pakistan’s military, political, and religious elements support terrorism or extremism are not very much complicated: Pakistan has a 62-year long enmity with India and its military gets benefited from this conflict. And the use of terrorist groups has proved the most effective and lethal method against India. So, unless the Pak-India conflict is solved, the military will never want to put a complete end to the terror groups. The second reason: Pakistan is not happy with the US presence in the region because that has been harming its strategic role in Afghanistan. As troubling as the Pak-India conflict is the Durand Line issue between Pakistan and Afghanistan. This conflict has deep political dimensions. A remarkable majority of the Afghans believe that Pakistan has illegally occupied the Pashtun-dominated areas. They think that the Pashtun-dominated areas of Pakistan should be a part of Afghanistan or turned into an independent state, known as Pashtunistan. Pakistan’s political powers are aware of these perceptions and know that a stable and peaceful Afghanistan may mean a re-emerge of the Pashtunistan issue. So without resolving this crucial issue, Pakistan’s political powers may never want to stop supporting the Afghan insurgency.

So reconciliation with the insurgents is okay. But there is still a strong need to look at these issues as important factors because only the solution of these problems can bring a long-lasting peace and stability to the region.

The Afghanistan – Pakistan – India Friendship Forum (APIFF) is for peace-loving people of this region. As South Asian countries, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India can play a major role in making the region socially peaceful, politically stable and economically prosper. Fortunately, majority of the people of these countries want these values and hate the warmongers who are always seeking conspiracies and conflict. This group is for people who want peace, stability and prosperity in these countries and the region. Let’s share our thoughts on these matters, be friends and think positive. Let’s throw the wars and conflicts where they have thrown us. To join the group and contribute to this cause, please click on the link and join:

http://www.facebook.com/group.php?v=wall&ref=mf&gid=193145820705

By Abdulhadi Hairan

‘Have not you ever seen a woman casting vote?’ asked an angry BB Jamila who was surrounded by an army of reporters and cameramen the moment she stepped inside Zarghoona High School at Shahr-e-Naw, Kabul. The reporters inundated her with questions she had never heard and had never expected that she would face such a situation in the polling center. Leaving home for the polling center, she had some hidden fears that the Taliban militants might attack, but here she was in a completely different situation: cameras flushed at her, reporters asked questions about the election, Afghanistan’s future and about the importance of women’s role. ‘Where do you think the country is heading?’ a reporter asked in Dari. She answered in a tired and uncaring voice that she was heading to cast her vote and then wanted to go to her home.

Inside the compound of the school, where the number of female voters seemed equal to the male voters, correspondents of the local and international media waited for voters to interview but the turnout was lower than they expected, so they had to wait for half of the whole day to get enough information to dispatch to their organizations.

My first visit was to the Habibia High School at Karta-e-3. The time was exactly 08:13 AM. The polling had been started about one hour earlier amid tight security. Empty roads and closed markets was a clear sign that the turnout will be low. At Habibia, this was the real case. Reporters and cameramen followed every voter to have an interview with or get some information from. Some people were willing to show their faces, others quietly left the schools leaving cameramen and reporters behind. The outspoken presidential candidate, Ramazan Bashardost cast his vote at this polling center and then started giving statements and interviews to the media. I saw no female voter entering this polling center.

Later, Dr. Ashraf Ghani also arrived at this polling center and cast his vote here. He was surrounded by a large number of campaigners who were highly optimistic about his victory despite the low turnout they could see. He also gave many statements and interviews to the media and met lot of people at the center. To my surprise, an old Kuchi man, whom I had interviewed few minutes ago and who proudly told me that he had cast his vote for Hamid Karzai, hugged him and told him that he liked him very much. After Mr. Ghani left, I asked the man if he was so fond of him and liked him so much why he voted for Karzai. He simply replied, ‘I like Ghani, he is a good man, but I voted for Karzai because I know he can lead this country better than anyone else.’

I interviewed few more people and went to another polling center: a high school at Chehal Satoon (district 7). And then to five more polling centers, including Zarghoona High School at Shahr-e-Naw. The voters were excited everywhere, but rush was nowhere. At a high school at Karta-e-9, there was a firing from somewhere close to the area, but there was no panic and the voters continued to vote. At Ghulam Haider Khan High School at Khairkhana, someone spread news that there was a blast at a polling center somewhere at the city. Yet no one left their place or looked worried. They just continued to vote and made exaggerating claims about the victory of their candidates.

At the polling centers, I interviewed 66 people and asked them whom they had voted for in order to have an idea about the popularity of the candidates. The result was that the majority of the people said they had voted for President Karzai. Following are the details of the respondents’ answers:

Habibia High School

President Hamid Karzai            9

Dr. Ashraf Ghani                         1

Dr. Abdullah Abdullah            1

Chehal Satoon

President Hamid Karzai            1

Dr. Ashraf Ghani                      1

Karta-e-9

President Hamid Karzai            2

Isteqlal High School, Park Zarnigar

President Hamid Karzai            2

Dr. Ashraf Ghani                      2

Dr. Abdullah Abdullah        1

Zarghoona High School, Shahr-e-Naw

President Hamid Karzai            7

Dr. Ashraf Ghani                      1

Dr. Abdullah Abdullah         2

Ghulam Haider Khan High School, Khairkhana

President Hamid Karzai            17

Dr. Ashraf Ghani                      3

Dr. Abdullah Abdullah         7

Ramazan Bashardost                1

Nadria High School, Karta-e-Parwan

President Hamid Karzai            4

Dr. Abdullah Abdullah             4

Total

President Hamid Karzai            42

Dr. Ashraf Ghani                          8

Dr. Abdullah Abdullah            15

Ramazan Bashardost                1

Among the people I interviewed 5 were women and the rest men. Among the men were Pashtoons, Tajik, and others. One said he was a traffic police officer. Majority of those who had voted for Karzai said they were happy with his leadership because their life conditions were improved during his presidency. A shopkeeper said he voted for Karzai because he had united the Afghans and provided better opportunities for them. He said he liked Karzai because he did not like wars and always acted wisely.

I also interviewed 10 people who were not registered voters. I asked why. 6 of them said they simply did not spare time to go to a voter registration center and register their names. 1 said they were not interested in the elections and did not care where the country was going. 1 said he was not sure whom to vote for, hence he did not try to get a voter card. 1 said he believed that democracy was against Islam.

Among the six who did not spare time for registering their names, 3 said they would have liked to vote for Karzai; one said for Dr. Ashraf Ghani; one said for Dr. Abdullah; and one said for Mirwais Yasini.

The voting is still underway and will continue until late. There is a strong possibility that a runoff will be needed.

 It was Afghanistan’s 90^th Independence Day today, the first that no one celebrated due to the complicated nature of the country’s second-ever landmark election, just hours away now. The Taliban-launched terror campaign forced the people to stay at homes and the security forces to take stricter measures for protection and safety. Even the Nato-led international peacekeeping force halted its offensive operations to protect voters around polling centers.

 Reports from different parts of the country say the election process is under attack everywhere in many shapes: attacks on polling centers, attacks on candidates, and threats to the voters. As a last attempt to change the situation in their favor, the Taliban claimed to have sent 20 suicide bombers and attackers to Kabul while the government asked media organizations to limit their reporting of violent acts of terror. It is true that the media coverage of terror acts encourages the perpetrators of violence and promotes their ambitions.

Finally, the election day arrived but amid two kinds of fear for the voters: there are voters who will be forced away from polling by the Taliban and their allies (bad fear), yet the voters who will manage to poll will still have fears about the fairness and transparency of the process (good fear). The former is related to the Afghan situation (and was experienced during Pakistan’s last election) while the latter is customary in the regional brand democracies, often based and practiced on dictatorial tendencies, conspiracy and rigging as well as different sorts of lies falsely justified by religious and political pretexts.

 Though this is the second presidential election in the country’s short democratic history, it is a real test for all the parties involved in the situation: the international community; the Afghan government; the Afghan people; and the insurgents.

 For the international community and the United States President Barack Obama, the success, or failure, of a new important strategy for the region depends on the capabilities of a new elected administration in Afghanistan.

 For the Afghan government, the test is important in many aspects: For example, how it maintains the election process, how it reacts to the people’s decision, and how it copes with or manages the situation after the polling is done and the result is out.

 For the Afghan people, it is really an experiment and a historic experience. It is they who will decide and choose the new leader, and the world is impatient to see how they will bear it if the result was not what they have been expecting (many fear for an Iran-like situation).

 And for the insurgents, this is the opportunity to show how much their strength and presence can affect or change the situation. In their case, it will shape the approach about them after the election in terms of negotiations with them or operations against them. In this context, we can say that this election is not just an event, but a series of important events full of suspense.

 Tomorrow I will visit many polling centers and will what I saw will be posted here along with photos.