It all started in mid-February of this year when Mullah Baradar, the second in command of the Afghan insurgency, was captured in a joint raid conducted by CIA and Pakistani forces in Karachi, Pakistan’s biggest city where members of the Taliban’s leadership council were reportedly hiding after being shifted from Quetta. Afterwards, local and international media outlets reported more captures of high command Taliban leaders and shadow governors in different parts of the country. The latest of the series was the apprehension of Mohtasim Agha Jan, former Taliban finance minister and son-in-law of Mullah Omar. With this, it is said that at least seven important members of the leadership council are now in Pakistan’s detention.

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The arrest of the de facto Taliban leader, Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, in Pakistan’s Karachi city in a joint secret CIA-Pakistan raid was another major blow for the brutal insurgency in the region. Just few days before that, on February 13, a massive onslaught in the restive south of Afghanistan attacked the hardcore militants’ longtime stronghold. Sporadic fighting is reported from the area, and there is resistance in some places, yet both Afghan and NATO officials claimed to have seized the town and termed the operation as ‘successful.’ Although the forces were ordered to be extremely careful in targeting noncombatants, two incidents of killing civilians still occurred, yet displaced people from the conflict-hit town welcomed the operation.
In Pakistan, the insurgents saw their second and more vindictive leader, Hakimullah Mehsud, died in a drone attack probably days after he appeared in a video with the Jordanian suicide bomber and claimed responsibility for the attack that killed 7 CIA experts in Khost. Analysts in the region say that his murder had led to cause a split between other Taliban leaders in the tribal areas between Pakistan and Afghanistan and that had significant negative impacts on activities of the terrorist outfit.
The arrest of Mullah Baradar is similarly the most important achievement in the counterinsurgency efforts since the US-led international troops invaded Afghanistan to oust his Al-Qaeda-linked government. Though at that time the spiritual leader of the movement was the one-eyed former jihadi commander Mullah Omar, and he still enjoys his position as the Supreme Leader, it was Mullah Baradar who emerged as a de facto leader of the Taliban and commanded the powerful Quetta Shura the existence of which the government of Pakistan constantly denied but reports said ISI had helped it in shifting to Karachi from Quetta after there was a discussion to whether kill the top Quetta Taliban leaders in drone attacks.
Pakistan is believed to have been providing support to the Afghan Taliban for a long time. Its intelligence outfits provided protection to commanders and strategists that were hiding and operating in Pakistan. How did they allow the Americans to capture this top military strategist is not clear now, but t is clear enough that this will significantly affect the insurgency in Afghanistan because the new strategy is focusing to target the top leaders, chase the local ones, and offer reintegration to the foot soldiers, all at the same time.
Now this is an important opportunity for the international community to continue chasing the top leaders in Pakistan and disconnecting them from the local commanders in the field (Afghanistan). An effective reintegration program in Kabul can help the new strategy to quicken its pace for achieving its goals which will eventually enable the Afghan government to establish its writ across the country and the allied countries to withdraw their troops. Avoiding past mistakes and strengthening Afghan security forces should be kept in mind as the most important factors in making the process successfully completed.

MARJAH, Helmand Province, Afghanistan – People displaced from the Taliban-controlled town of Marjah, Nad Ali in Helmand province, welcomed a massive military operation launched February 13 aimed at flushing out the insurgents to pave the way for reconstruction and restoration of government authority.

The operation was launched early February 13 after weeks of extensive publicity that included press conferences and dropping leaflets in the area to avoid civilian casualties and give insurgents a chance to lay down their arms.

Around 6,000 troops — a majority of them Afghan soldiers — attacked the town of Marjah, which had been under control of extremists for nearly three years.

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“The latest sad news is that the Christian Crusaders (Americans) have burned a copy of the Holy Quran in Wardak province and have thus shown their enmity with Islam and the Muslims… The saddest aspect of this incident is that the American invaders have committed this heinous crime in a province (Wardak) that has been known for long as home to mujahedeen (the holy warriors). The people of this province have taken active part in past and current jihadi movements. The people of this province have always defended their country bravely and heroically. The people of this province had played a historical role in the war against British occupiers…”

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For the people of this war-ravaged country the coming election on August 20 2009 is viewed with hope as well as apprehension. There are a total of 41 candidates registered with the Independent Election Commission of Afghanistan among whom only three have enough support to be considered serious contenders. They are the incumbent Hamid Karzai, Dr. Ashraf Ghani, and Dr. Abdullah Abdullah. Three lesser-known candidates have already withdrawn from the race in favour of Karzai and Abdullah.

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 The horrendous increase of insurgent attacks across Afghanistan ahead of the upcoming presidential election says what it has behind it: the security situation will deteriorate further which means that the polling will be completed without the international observers watching. This makes it clear that if there is no security, the voting process will not be free and transparent.

 Understandably we can hope that everything will be fine. But concerns have been widely expressed about some government officials’ illegal involvement in campaign activities for certain candidates which will lead the polling to be massively rigged and results manipulated.

 It is sure that neither the international community nor the Afghan people can afford such a situation because, if there was rigging on a massive scale or the results were manipulated, a reaction similar to the aftermath of the Iranian election will come up. Thus, uprisings and countrywide protests will add up to the prevailing tension and this is very likely to paralyze the whole system.

 The idea of deploying more international and Afghan troops on the Election Day is very important in this context because insecurity will result in rigging and rigging will lead the country into chaos. Consequently, the failure and chaos will gravely undermine all the efforts the international community has so far done to stabilize the country and its government.

 So it is very necessary that the international community, particularly the United Nations, take immediate steps and make sound decisions before things reach the irreversible level.